Spring 2026 inventory is still historically low. If you've been thinking about selling, this is the window — and I'll show you exactly what waiting is costing.
Look, I've had some version of the same conversation about forty times in the last six months. The seller is ready. The house is ready. The next chapter has been decided — a condo in Edina, a rental while they figure things out, a move closer to the grandkids. The only thing not ready is the decision to actually list.
There's always one more thing to wait for.
That hesitation is costing real money in 2026. Not in some theoretical future-value sense. In actual dollars, every single month, while the window sits open.
Here's what I want you to know about this market and this spring.
Yes — and specifically the early window matters. Twin Cities inventory is still running well below pre-2020 norms. Buyers who spent 2023 and 2024 on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall have come back. They're qualified, they're motivated, and there aren't enough homes to absorb all of them.
The window that matters most isn't "spring" as a season. It's March and early April — before the wave of listings that always hits in May turns a seller's market into a crowded shelf.
Here's the pattern I see every year in the Minneapolis metro:
| Month | Active Listings | Buyer Competition | Days on Market | Leverage | |-------|----------------|-------------------|----------------|----------| | Jan–Feb | Very low | Moderate (serious only) | 18–28 days | Sellers | | Mar–Apr | Low-to-moderate | High | 12–22 days | Sellers | | May–Jun | Rising fast | High | 25–35 days | Balanced | | Jul–Aug | Moderate | Moderate | 30–45 days | Balanced | | Sep–Oct | Falling | Moderate | 22–32 days | Sellers | | Nov–Dec | Low | Motivated buyers | 20–30 days | Sellers |
The myth is that May is the peak selling month. It is the peak for buyer activity — but it's also when your competition triples. March and early April are when you have the most buyers and the least competition. That's the window.
(Most people who list in May think they caught the spring market. What they actually caught is the tail end of it.)
This is the number most sellers don't run until I put it in front of them. Every month you stay in a house you've mentally left has a real carrying cost attached to it — and in this market, that cost is significant.
I'm not going to reuse somebody else's math. Here's what it actually looks like for a typical Twin Cities seller in 2026 sitting on a $475,000 home:
| Monthly Expense | Estimated Cost | |----------------|---------------| | Mortgage payment (P&I, 30-yr at 5.8%) | $1,890 | | Property taxes (Hennepin County avg.) | $420 | | Homeowner's insurance | $160 | | Utilities — heat, electric, water | $270 | | Lawn care / snow removal | $180 | | Routine maintenance reserve | $300 | | Total monthly carrying cost | $3,220 |
Three months of waiting is just under $10,000. Six months is close to $20,000. That's not a number you get back.
And that's before you factor in opportunity cost — the equity sitting in that house not working for you in whatever you've already decided comes next.
Now add this: buyers who were frozen by 6.8% and 7.1% rates in 2023 and 2024 are moving again as rates have eased into the mid-to-high fives. They have purchasing power. The window is open. But it won't stay open indefinitely if inventory builds or rates tick back up.
Probably more than you think. Minneapolis home values have appreciated meaningfully over the last decade, and the sellers I'm working with right now — people who bought in the late 2000s through early 2010s — are looking at equity numbers that genuinely surprise them.
If you bought a four-bedroom in Minnetonka in 2008 for $310,000, you're likely sitting on $350,000 to $450,000 in equity depending on what you've paid down and what the market has done in your specific neighborhood. That's not a Zillow number. That's a real, usable asset.
Here's the thing about equity: it exists whether or not you sell. But it only works for you when you access it. Right now it's sitting in four bedrooms, some of which nobody sleeps in anymore, generating nothing.
If you want to see your actual number — not a range, not a guess — run it through the Equity Predictor. Takes about two minutes and gives you a realistic baseline to have a real conversation about timing.
Rates have pulled back from their 2023–2024 peak. We're not at pandemic lows — nobody credible thinks we're going back there — but we're in a range that's thawed buyers who were frozen solid eighteen months ago.
When rates were above 7%, the buyer pool got very thin. Only the most motivated buyers moved — relocation, divorce, new job, growing family. That's life-event buying. It's real, but it's a smaller pool.
Now that rates are in the mid-fives for a well-qualified buyer, the discretionary buyer has returned. The couple who's been renting in St. Paul while they "wait and see." The first-timer who finally feels like the math works. They're back in the market.
What that means for you as a seller: the pool of people who could buy your home is meaningfully larger than it was 18 months ago. Pair that with low inventory and you have a real advantage — if you list before the May surge levels the playing field.
Waiting for rates to fall further before listing is the wrong calculation. When rates drop significantly, seller inventory rises to match. The seller's edge disappears right when buyers feel best about buying.
Most of the sellers I sit with who have been "thinking about it" for six months already know the answer. The next chapter is decided. The destination is real. The hesitation isn't about the market.
It's permission.
Permission to close the chapter. Permission to leave the neighborhood. Permission to stop maintaining a house that's bigger than your life right now. The timing conversation is often the last thing on the table — what's actually sitting underneath it is whether it's okay to go.
It's okay to go.
Selling a home you've loved doesn't mean the years in it didn't matter. It means you built something — financially and otherwise — that now gets to carry you into the next thing. That's not a loss. That's the deal working the way it was supposed to.
I can help with the numbers, the timing, and the mechanics of getting the house ready. The Selling Your Home guide is a good place to understand the full process. But the conversation I'd rather have with you is about whether now actually makes sense for your situation — not just the market's situation.
Every spring I watch sellers who should have listed in March wait until May because "that's when people buy." And they're not wrong — May has a lot of buyers. But May also has a lot of sellers.
The homes that list in March get the buyers who've been shopping all winter and are ready to move. They've done the research. They know what they want. They're not going to wait three more months for more options.
The homes that list in May get those buyers plus the tire-kickers who are just starting their process. The result is more showings, but not necessarily better offers. And by June, if you haven't gone under contract, you're facing a long summer with price reductions on the table.
I'm not telling you to rush. I'm telling you that the spring window has a specific shape, and the front half of it is better than the back half — especially in a year when inventory is still low and buyer demand has recovered.
If you've been reading posts like The Hidden Cost of Waiting and recognizing yourself in them, it might be worth having an honest conversation about what your specific timeline looks like.
You don't need to have everything figured out to have the first conversation. Most good decisions start with getting the real number — what's the house actually worth, what would net proceeds look like, and what does the next six months need to look like to make this work.
That's what I do before anything goes on paper.
Grab coffee with me. No pitch. No paperwork. Just an honest look at your situation and whether now is your window or not. If it's not, I'll tell you that too.
Send me a text or check your equity number here and we'll go from there.
— Chris
Related reading:
Market data sourced from NorthstarMLS via InfoSparks.
Chris Deutsch
25+ years of walking neighborhoods, checking basements, and telling clients the truth — even when it costs a commission. Minneapolis real estate, unscripted.
No sales pitches here. Just some honest tools, real data, and practical guides to help you figure out the next steps.
Based on information from the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. as most recently published. Chris Deutsch, Lakes Area Realty, MN license 20382264.
